Lars Ericson
Feb. 28, 2018
7:02 p.m. PST

Individual HFC forecaster platforms: Base case and value-added cases

We will be receiving forecasts from the "base condition" platform which is called Carbon and provided by Cultivate Labs. Here is an FAQ on Carbon:

There are 3 non-base-case platforms for individual forecasters run by HFC contractor teams. I don't think we will be getting forecasts from these platforms. (Because we are, in effect, a set of 4th contending platforms, and each of these platforms provides forecasters special advantages of some sort, or a special aggregation of some sort, which is value-added over Carbon.)

1. SAGE from USC ISI. SAGE goals include finding best forecaster incentives to enhance retention and engagement, and supplying easy-to-use models for forecasters to apply to questions:

2. Matrics from Howard Hughes. This platform aims to entertain
and retain the top 2% of forecasters who do 99% of the work of the crowd:

3. Prescience from Raytheon: Not clear what this is about, but one of the partners is Hypermind, a French système de prévision de foule:

Finally, here is the FAQ that individual HFC forecasters see about the program. When individuals sign up, they are randomly assigned to the base case Carbon or one of the 3 value-added cases above:
2 Replies

Nick Lothian
March 1, 2018
8:55 p.m. PST
If any of the Cultivatelabs people are around, then I lol'ed at the name "carbon".

I assumed it was Carbon because Carbon comes after EMBERS. You may find this equally amusing:

Carbon: Forecasting Civil Unrest Events by Monitoring News and Social Media

Lars Ericson
March 2, 2018
4:41 a.m. PST
@Nick Lothian
EMBERs...interesting...if you can get a feed out of that, it would definitely add value for GF. You should give them a call!