Lars Ericson

Individual HFC forecaster platforms: Base case and value-added cases

We will be receiving forecasts from the "base condition" platform which is called Carbon and provided by Cultivate Labs. Here is an FAQ on Carbon: https://carbon.hybridforecasting.com/faq

There are 3 non-base-case platforms for individual forecasters run by HFC contractor teams. I don't think we will be getting forecasts from these platforms. (Because we are, in effect, a set of 4th contending platforms, and each of these platforms provides forecasters special advantages of some sort, or a special aggregation of some sort, which is value-added over Carbon.)

1. SAGE from USC ISI. SAGE goals include finding best forecaster incentives to enhance retention and engagement, and supplying easy-to-use models for forecasters to apply to questions: https://viterbischool.usc.edu/news/2017/10/usc-isi-leads-iarpa-contract-developing-hybrid-forecasting-systems/

2. Matrics from Howard Hughes. This platform aims to entertain
and retain the top 2% of forecasters who do 99% of the work of the crowd: http://www.hrl.com/news/2017/10/03/hrl-researchers-receive-iarpa-award-hybrid-forecasting-competition

3. Prescience from Raytheon: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6353950240583880704 Not clear what this is about, but one of the partners is Hypermind, a French système de prévision de foule: https://hypermind.com

Finally, here is the FAQ that individual HFC forecasters see about the program. When individuals sign up, they are randomly assigned to the base case Carbon or one of the 3 value-added cases above: https://www.hybridforecasting.com/faq

2 Replies

Nick Lothian
If any of the Cultivatelabs people are around, then I lol'ed at the name "carbon".

I assumed it was Carbon because Carbon comes after EMBERS. You may find this equally amusing:

Carbon: Forecasting Civil Unrest Events by Monitoring News and Social Media

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-69179-4_62
Lars Ericson
@Nick Lothian
EMBERs...interesting...if you can get a feed out of that, it would definitely add value for GF. You should give them a call! https://dac.cs.vt.edu/research-project/embers/