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Geopolitical Forecasting [GF] Challenge 2

Geopolitical Forecasting [GF] Challenge 2

We’re on a mission to improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical forecasts by advancing the science of forecasting. Read Overview...
Overview

Overview

Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 encourages novel approaches that embrace non-traditional methods and harnesses the collective community, while offering Solvers the chance to win a share of $250,000 in prize money. 

The collective effort of GF Challenge 2 stimulates breakthroughs in the science of forecasting, leading to greater strategic advantages for maintaining global security, predicting economic trends, and directing the need for humanitarian efforts. 

Solvers, whether individuals or teams, will create innovative solutions and methods to produce forecasts to a set of more than 300 questions referred to as Individual Forecasting Problems (IFPs), released regularly over the course of the nine-month Challenge. Each IFP includes a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive response options, as well as firm resolution criteria. IFPs remain open until a final specified closing date or until the event defined in the IFP is reported as occurring. 

 

Sample Questions: 

  • How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in August 2019?
  • Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Brazil in July 2019?
  • What will be the daily closing price of gold on June 2019 in USD?
  • Which political party will win the most seats during the Polish Parliamentary Election?

 

A continuously updated stream of probabilistic forecasts from human forecasters in JSON format will be provided to Solvers which can be used to generate solutions, and Solvers are encouraged to use their own data and models to supplement their forecasts. As long as an IFP is open, Solvers can continue to update their forecast for that question. 

The administration of the Challenge is automated and secured through an API that provides the forecasting questions and individual human forecasts and receives forecast submissions, so having at least one team member with programming or developer skills is essential for participation.

 

Guidelines
Timeline
event
Jan. 31, 2020, 10 a.m. PST
Winners Announced
Winners announced
event
Nov. 29, 2019, 11:01 a.m. PST
Submissions Closed
event
Nov. 29, 2019, 11 a.m. PST
End of Milestone Period 3
event
Sept. 19, 2019, 11:01 a.m. PDT
End of Milestone Period 2
event
July 18, 2019, 11:01 a.m. PDT
End of Milestone Period 1
May 22, 2019, 4:09 a.m. PDT
You are here
event
May 15, 2019, 9:30 a.m. PDT
Challenge Official Launch
update
May 15, 2019, 8:51 a.m. PDT
event
May 6, 2019, 9 a.m. PDT
Q&A Session 2
Q&A Session 2 with the Challenge Team
http://bit.ly/2GueqE3
update
April 16, 2019, 5:35 a.m. PDT
event
April 15, 2019, 8 p.m. PDT
Enter
event
April 15, 2019, 9 a.m. PDT
Q&A Session 1
Q&A Session 1 with the Challenge Team
http://bit.ly/2FXjujY
event
April 4, 2019, 9 a.m. PDT
Pre-Registration Opens
April 3, 2019, 3:53 p.m. PDT
Date Launched
Updates 4
Forum 58
Community 1K
FAQ
Resources