Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 moderator
Dec. 10, 2019
11:29 a.m. PST

GFC2 Workshop Presenter Invitations

The Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 (GFC2) Workshop will coincide with the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) Principal Investigators Meeting on January 22-23, 2020 in Arlington, Virginia. The top five Solvers on the leaderboard as of 12PM ET on December 12th will be invited to present at the GFC2 Workshop and will receive a formal invitation from the GFC2 Team with further details.

We look forward to hearing about your solutions at the GFC2 Workshop!

-GF Challenge 2 Team
2 Replies

Lars Ericson
Dec. 11, 2019
8:14 a.m. PST
edited
As a disinterested observer at this point, I think IARPA would benefit from taking the top 10 rather than the top 5. Not just because EagleWings got bumped off 5th place the other day by the mysterious 296-295 trade (https://www.herox.com/IARPAGFChallenge2/forum/thread/4505), but because the performance of the 6-10th place solvers is so close. Also objectively people in top 10 have been top performers in other IARPA challenges, for example rekcahd in 9th place also aced the MERCURY and PINS challenges. Don't you want to pick his brains on this one? You're really leaving a lot of good insight on the floor by not inviting 6th through 10th place solvers to your meeting.

Also if this meeting is like last year's, I think you'd do well to upgrade the GFC speaking slots to 30 minutes from 15. Last year, most of the workshop time was given over to HFC talks and the heavily funded HFC teams were not even performing as well on objective scoring as the GFC solvers.
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Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 moderator
Dec. 13, 2019
6:55 a.m. PST
Thank you for your suggestions. Our team also recognizes that the Solvers who present need a longer time slot and we are planning for this in the Workshop. We will consider your recommendation to invite the contending Solvers who are short of the Top 5. We are already planning to trickle down the Workshop Presenter Prize awards in order of finish, in the event that any of the top 5 Solvers decline the prize. Please note, however, we are limited by the space available for the meeting. Finally, at the conclusion of the Challenge we invite all Solvers to describe their solutions in this Forum.
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