Preparing for Launch – A Helpful Tip
A Helpful Tip - if you are not quite ready with your algorithms/methods for Day 1 (May 15th), you may want to create your API connections and submit the consensus forecast for each of your 40 methods each day as the forecast for that method until you are able to fully configure your algorithms. This way, your score will not be as negatively impacted as it would be by receiving the imputed "ignorance prior" on the 40 methods. You won't be able to outperform the baseline but at least you won't lose ground in the early going. For example, the ignorance prior for a binary IFP will always have a Brier Score of 0.5. In GFC1 the baseline Brier Score was approximately 0.26. Please remember that there are no restrictions on modifying your methods during the competition.