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Geopolitical Forecasting [GF] Challenge 2

Geopolitical Forecasting [GF] Challenge 2

We’re on a mission to improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical forecasts by advancing the science of forecasting. Read Overview...
Overview

Overview

Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 encourages novel approaches that embrace non-traditional methods and harnesses the collective community, while offering Solvers the chance to win a share of $250,000 in prize money. 

The collective effort of GF Challenge 2 stimulates breakthroughs in the science of forecasting, leading to greater strategic advantages for maintaining global security, predicting economic trends, and directing the need for humanitarian efforts. 

Solvers, whether individuals or teams, will create innovative solutions and methods to produce forecasts to a set of more than 300 questions referred to as Individual Forecasting Problems (IFPs), released regularly over the course of the nine-month Challenge. Each IFP includes a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive response options, as well as firm resolution criteria. IFPs remain open until a final specified closing date or until the event defined in the IFP is reported as occurring. 

 

Sample Questions: 

  • How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in August 2019?
  • Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Brazil in July 2019?
  • What will be the daily closing price of gold on June 2019 in USD?
  • Which political party will win the most seats during the Polish Parliamentary Election?

 

A continuously updated stream of probabilistic forecasts from human forecasters in JSON format will be provided to Solvers which can be used to generate solutions, and Solvers are encouraged to use their own data and models to supplement their forecasts. As long as an IFP is open, Solvers can continue to update their forecast for that question. 

The administration of the Challenge is automated and secured through an API that provides the forecasting questions and individual human forecasts and receives forecast submissions, so having at least one team member with programming or developer skills is essential for participation.

 

Guidelines
Timeline
Updates 5
Forum 90
Community 1.1K
FAQ
Resources

The following resources have been compiled to help familiarize Solvers with geopolitical forecasting, scoring, and the platform for the Challenge. These resources are intended to serve as examples of relevant background materials, and identification here does not constitute a recommendation from IARPA to purchase any for-pay services related to these resources.

 

Challenge Resources

Challenge Rules and Regulations

Differences Between GF Challenge and GF Challenge 2

Intellectual Property Agreement

FAQ Document

Q&A Session 1 Presentation

Q&A Session 1 Fielded Questions

Q&A Session 2 Presentation

Final Submission Document

Prize Distribution Agreement

Q&A Session 2 Fielded Questions

 

Related Books

"Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" by Phil Tetlock

"The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't" by Nate Silver

 

News

"So You Think You're Smarter Than a CIA Agent" – NPR

"Intelligence Community Looking At Crowdsourcing For Predicting Geopolitical Events" - NPR

“Harnessing the Wisdom of the Crowd to Forecast”

 

Websites

Good Judgment, Inc.

Geopolitical Monitor

Stratfor

The Economist Intelligence Unit

 

Scoring Methods

Brier Score – Wikipedia

Brier (1950). "Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability" Monthly Weather Review. 78: 1–3.

 

Relevant Programs

Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC)

Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) Broad Agency Announcement (BAA)

Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE)

Open Source Indicators (OSI)

CDC Epidemic Prediction Initiative

 

Technical Resources

GF Challenge 2 on GitHub