Water managers need more skillful information on weather and climate conditions in order to help efficiently utilize water resources to reduce the impact of hydrologic regimes. Examples of hydrologic regimes include the onset of drought or a wet weather extremes from high levels of precipitation. Lacking skillful sub-seasonal information limits water managers’ ability to prepare for shifts in hydrologic regimes and can pose major threats to their ability to manage the valuable resource.
The challenge of sub-seasonal forecasting is that it encompasses the time frame where initial state information (e.g., coupled land-atmosphere processes) becomes less important, and slowly varying long term states (e.g., sea surface temperatures, soil moisture, snow pack) become more important to prediction skill. Additionally, this information is needed 15 days to 45 days ahead of time, or even longer.
The Rodeo II Challenge series will create algorithms to enhance sub-seasonal forecasting, reducing risks to our water systems, and helping water managers efficiently manage hydrological regimes.