I am a psychologist who has been studying for 30 years people’s ability to express uncertainty surrounding their judgments, particularly regarding forecasts of future events and predictions of uncertain quantities. In the last few years – as a consultant – I have been applying insights from psychological research to the elicitation of uncertain judgments from experts for inclusion in risk models. Most recently, I have been involved in extending this expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) approach from risk analysis to forecasting, and to the elicitation of models themselves from experts, not just the parameters of these models.
As an example of the latter, from 2017-18 I was a PI on an IARPA-funded program (CREATE: Crowdsourcing Evidence, Argumentation, Thinking and Evaluation) where I was part of a team who developed a web-based system for eliciting from experts causal models of judgment domains in the form of Bayes nets which can then be used for evidence evaluation and forecasting. The elicitation protocol we used was based on the well-established Delphi technique whereby groups of experts work together on a problem under conditions designed to minimize commonly observed cognitive and social biases such as anchoring and groupthink.
A CV and list of my publications is available on request.