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Geopolitical Forecasting [GF] Challenge 2

Geopolitical Forecasting [GF] Challenge 2

We’re on a mission to improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical forecasts by advancing the science of forecasting. Read Overview...
Overview

Overview

Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 encourages novel approaches that embrace non-traditional methods and harnesses the collective community, while offering Solvers the chance to win a share of $250,000 in prize money. 

The collective effort of GF Challenge 2 stimulates breakthroughs in the science of forecasting, leading to greater strategic advantages for maintaining global security, predicting economic trends, and directing the need for humanitarian efforts. 

Solvers, whether individuals or teams, will create innovative solutions and methods to produce forecasts to a set of more than 300 questions referred to as Individual Forecasting Problems (IFPs), released regularly over the course of the nine-month Challenge. Each IFP includes a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive response options, as well as firm resolution criteria. IFPs remain open until a final specified closing date or until the event defined in the IFP is reported as occurring. 

 

Sample Questions: 

  • How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in August 2019?
  • Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Brazil in July 2019?
  • What will be the daily closing price of gold on June 2019 in USD?
  • Which political party will win the most seats during the Polish Parliamentary Election?

 

A continuously updated stream of probabilistic forecasts from human forecasters in JSON format will be provided to Solvers which can be used to generate solutions, and Solvers are encouraged to use their own data and models to supplement their forecasts. As long as an IFP is open, Solvers can continue to update their forecast for that question. 

The administration of the Challenge is automated and secured through an API that provides the forecasting questions and individual human forecasts and receives forecast submissions, so having at least one team member with programming or developer skills is essential for participation.

 

Guidelines
Timeline
Updates 4

GF Challenge 2 Starts Today at 2pm ET!

May 15, 2019, 8:51 a.m. PDT by Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2

The Challenge launch is finally here! IFPs and data start flowing at 2pm ET, and it's time to begin submitting forecasts.

Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 encourages novel approaches that embrace non-traditional methods and harnesses the collective community, while offering Solvers the chance to win a share of $250,000 in prize money. 

  • Submit forecasts from up to 40 different method slots. This gives you the opportunity to submit 40 forecasts for each individual forecasting problems (IFP) — but, each method should have a consistent and describable methodology behind it which you maintain throughout the Challenge. 
  • Check your API regularly for newly released IFPs and additional updates. New IFPs will typically be released on Wednesdays between 12:30 PM and 2:00 PM ET, but clarifications and IFP resolutions could occur at any time – so checking the API more frequently is recommended. 
  • Review sample IFPs before the Challenge. We’ve posted sample IFPs for Solvers. These are some of the anticipated IFPs that will be released in the challenge. These forecasting question templates may help you get a head start.
  • Set up a push API to get notifications of new data. If you are set up to receive HTTP POST notifications, then instructions for how to set up an API POST hook are available on the Cultivate Labs platform in the API documentation under “push APIs”. If you have a web server, you can be notified automatically when new IFPs are posted or updated. 

The GF Challenge 2 Team


Save the Date: Join the final GF Challenge 2 Q&A Session on May 6

April 26, 2019, 10:08 a.m. PDT by Despina Maliaka

Learn more about Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 at our last Question & Answer session

 

DATE: May 6
TIME: 12:00 – 1:00pm EDT
VIRTUAL MEETING: This session will be held online using Zoom. Dial in information will be sent to registered users two days prior to the event.

We’ll outline the Challenge rules, structure, and logistics, highlight the major differences between the first and second GF Challenges. You’ll also have an opportunity to ask questions to get any clarification you need.

Register Today!

 

We want to make sure your most pressing questions are answered!

Prior to the session, you can post questions on the HeroX forum, and the GF Challenge 2 team will answer as many of them as possible during the session. You’ll also be able to ask questions throughout the session using Zoom’s chat function.

- The GF Challenge 2 Team


GF Challenge 2 Registration Is Now Open!

April 16, 2019, 5:35 a.m. PDT by Despina Maliaka

Are you ready for the next Challenge?

We hope you’re as excited as we are about the launch of the Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 (GF Challenge 2). We’ve recently released the IP Agreement, Prize Information, and the Challenge Rules.  Best of all, you can now register and begin setting up your API.

 

The Challenge launches  on  May 15,  and
Solvers will compete for up to $250K in prizes! 

REGISTER FOR THE CHALLENGE 

 

Yes, we mean you!

New perspectives can offer innovative insights. To that end, we’re looking for solutions from individuals or teams who think they can help advance the science of forecasting, including forecasting enthusiasts, data scientists, computer programmers, economists, epidemiologists, and even – or especially – experts in disciplines we haven’t yet considered.

Are you in?

IFPs and data start flowing on May 15, so get signed up and register for your API token now.

Accept the Challenge

 


Save the Date: Join the GF Challenge 2 Q&A Session on April 15!

April 8, 2019, 2:05 p.m. PDT by Despina Maliaka

Learn more about Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 at our first of two Question & Answer sessions!

 

DATE: April 15
TIME: 12:00 – 1:00pm EDT
VIRTUAL MEETING: This session will be held online using Zoom. Dial in information will be sent to registered users two days prior to the event.

We’ll outline the Challenge rules, structure, and logistics, and highlight the major differences between the first and second GF Challenges. You’ll also have an opportunity to ask questions to get any clarification you need.

Register Today! https://eventmanagement.cvent.com/GFChallenge2QASession

We want to make sure your most pressing questions are answered!

Prior to the session, you can post questions on the HeroX forum, and the GF Challenge 2 team will answer as many of them as possible during the session. You’ll also be able to ask questions throughout the session using Zoom’s chat function.

- The GF Challenge 2 Team


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