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American-Made Challenges

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Solar Forecasting Prize

Enabling solar industry stakeholders with state-of-the-art solar forecasting capabilities

This challenge is closed

stage:
Won
prize:
$375,000

This challenge is closed

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Summary
Timeline
Updates22
Forum11
Teams214
Leaderboard
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FAQ
Summary

Overview

The American-Made Solar Forecasting Prize is designed to better enable solar industry stakeholders with state-of-the-art solar forecasting capabilities. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office, this prize aims to increase the use of the Solar Forecast Arbiter, an open platform developed by the University of Arizona, to allow for the transparent, rigorous, and consistent analysis and evaluation of solar forecasts.

Increasing Awareness of State-of-the-Art Solar Forecasting

Probabilistic forecasts are being recognized as a critical tool for cost-effective reserve allocation and unit scheduling. Considering a future with high-penetration weather-bound renewable energy generation is becoming increasingly important. But today, deployment and integration of these forecasts into energy management systems has not been widely adopted. 

Additionally, independent system operators agree that solar forecasting is an important part of system operations, and forecasting becomes even more important as the fraction of variable weather-dependent generation increases.

 

The Solar Forecasting Prize aims to address this by:

  • Increasing stakeholder awareness of the state of the art in solar forecasting.
  • Incentivizing the participation of a broad range of competitors from the solar forecasting industry and research and development space.
  • Growing industry knowledge of the Solar Forecast Arbiter (SFA) platform and its potential.
  • Promoting the adoption of uniform and transparent metrics and specifications for solar forecasts using SFA (or similar platforms) by forecast end-users.
  • Identifying algorithms that perform better than a baseline probabilistic forecast.

Earn Cash Prizes for Successful Solar Forecasting

Up to five teams will win $50,000 each in cash prizes for showcasing the best performing algorithm and the strongest commercialization plan. 

Five runner-up teams will also have the chance to earn $25,000 in cash prizes.

 

What Is the Solar Forecast Arbiter? 

The Solar Forecast Arbiter (SFA) is an open forecasting platform developed by the University of Arizona. It allows for the transparent, rigorous, and consistent analysis and evaluation of solar forecasts by end-users. 


Guidelines

Please review the official rules for the complete application process and instructions for competing.

If you want to subscribe to updates on the prize or have any questions, you may use the contact feature on the HeroX platform, or message us directly.

 

Timeline
Updates22

Challenge Updates

Announcing Results THIS Friday!

March 22, 2022, 9:43 a.m. PDT by NREL Prize Administrator

Be the first to hear who the winners and runners-up are for Solar Forecasting Prize by registering for the CMU Energy Week Virtual Networking Mixer on Friday, March 25 from 3:30–5 p.m. ET

After four weeks of submitting their solar forecasts across 10 locations in the United States and having their commercialization plans reviewed by expert judges, competitors will finally find out who earns up to $50,000 in cash prizes. The work performed by competitors is helping increase stakeholder awareness of the state-of-the-art in solar forecasting and boosting industry knowledge of the Solar Forecast Arbiter platform, which provides transparent and impartial evaluations of solar forecasts for the broader industry.

Tune in this Friday, March 25, for the Virtual Networking Mixer to connect with investors, academia, government, and more. The event is free and open to competitors and non-competitors alike. At the end of the event, the winners and runners-up will be announced. 

Don’t miss the exciting conclusion of the Solar Forecasting Prize. Join the CMU Energy Week Virtual Networking Mixer this Friday to find out who wins!


Winners and Runners-Up Announcement Next Week  - Register Today!

March 17, 2022, 3:31 p.m. PDT by NREL Prize Administrator

Teams submitted their final forecasts and commercialization plans! Now, their commercialization plans (focused on either the team’s product-to-market approach or their probabilistic forecasting accelerated market adoption plan) are under review by the Expert Reviewer panel. 

Solar Forecasting Prize winners will be announced on Friday, March 25, during the CMU Energy Week Virtual Network Mixer from 3:30–5 p.m. ET. Following the announcement, competitors are invited to stay for a networking session. The mixer is open to anyone looking to forge connections with top innovators, organizations, students, and entrepreneurs in the energy industry. 

Register for the Virtual Networking Mixer to be the first to hear about the winners!


Third Solar Forecasting Prize Leaderboard Update

March 8, 2022, 9:32 a.m. PST by NREL Prize Administrator

This week’s anonymized Solar Forecasting Prize results are holding steady! All teams in the top 10 spots remained in the same ranking this week, with Prompt Molly still in the lead. 

Up to 10 teams will receive a cash prize at the end of the evaluation period, which concludes next Monday, March 14. 

As a reminder, competitors submit solar forecasts for 10 locations across the United States. The leaderboard tab on HeroX shows the rankings for each of the 10 locations, with each team listed as an anonymous animal pseudonym. The rankings below show the cumulative results across all locations.

The top 10 of the 23 total competing teams, cumulatively ranked, are as follows: 


Second Solar Forecasting Prize Leaderboard Update

March 1, 2022, 3:30 p.m. PST by NREL Prize Administrator

This week’s anonymized results for the Solar Forecasting Prize competitors are in! Prompt Molly continues to stay in the lead with other teams shifting in rank and trailing close behind. 

Up to 10 teams will receive a cash prize at the end of the evaluation period so don’t forget to stay tuned over the next two weeks to watch the rankings unfold. 

As a reminder, competitors submit solar forecasts for 10 locations across the United States. The leaderboard tab on HeroX shows the rankings for each of the 10 locations, with each team listed as an anonymous animal pseudonym. The rankings below show the cumulative results across all locations.

The top 10 of the 23 total competing teams, cumulatively ranked, are as follows: 


First Week of Solar Forecasting Prize Leaderboard

Feb. 23, 2022, 2:43 p.m. PST by NREL Prize Administrator

The Solar Forecasting Prize competitors have completed their first week of forecasts and the anonymized results are in! Prompt Molly is taking an early lead, earning the top spot among 23 competing teams.

Every day through March 14, competitors submit solar forecasts for 10 locations across the United States. The leaderboard tab on HeroX shows the rankings for each of the 10 locations, with each team listed as an anonymous animal pseudonym. The rankings below show the cumulative results across all locations.

The top 10 of the 23 total competing teams, cumulatively ranked, are as follows: 

Up to five teams will earn $50,000 for their successful solar forecasting capabilities, while up to five additional runners-up will earn $25,000.

Check out the leaderboard tab for full standings in each of the 10 locations and stay tuned for weekly updates!


Forum11
Teams214
Leaderboard
Resources
FAQ