Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 moderator
Nov. 25, 2019
6:20 a.m. PST

GF Challenge 2 Closes on Friday, November 29

The GF Challenge 2 and Milestone 3 for the Challenge will close on Friday, November 29.

We’ve seen some amazing work from Solvers/Teams over the past several months, and we’re coming to the finish line for the Challenge! The top 10 Solvers for Milestone 3 will receive an equal share of the $7,500 award. Overall winners for the Challenge will be announced in January once all solutions have been evaluated and the final scores are calculated.

Now’s the time to kick it into high gear and finish strong!
2 Replies

Nov. 27, 2019
7:30 a.m. PST
I understand correctly that the process of updating the leaderboard will continue in the same mode, just have to end by January? It's just that this is the only way for us to see how the correct answers to the questions are determined, and you yourself have recently asked us to report if we see any mistakes in this process.
The question of code verification is understandable, of course.

Lars Ericson
Nov. 27, 2019
8:34 a.m. PST
With resolution of 100 or so questions stacked at the end, there may be some Leaderboard ranking and payout surprises. By my count there are 80 or 90 "baked" questions (close to 0% or 100%), so general improvement over the Baseline could decline sharply for everybody and leave top prizes unpaid, due to the very low spread over the baseline that will result, assuming those questions resolve to the baseline forecast. At the moment top prizes are definitely getting paid. So statistically likely they will get paid, unless they don't. (I.e. statistically likely the crowd is dead wrong on enough of the baked questions that more judicious forecasts will average out better.) In that case I expect some loudly unhappy campers. Currently I'm pretty washed out, so it won't affect me, unless I get the benefit of it, which isn't happening so far. Suffice to say it's still definitely a coin toss who will end up in the winner's circle and who will have to go cry it out.
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