My understanding is each method is applied to all IFPs, and any IFP that a method starts late on gets Ignorance Prior up to the day it starts. Your score is max(method1,...method40). So you can't mix and match and apply one model in one method only to questions that it applies to, and ignore other questions in that method. You've probably already lost a fair amount of ground. Better strategy is to broadcast Consensus vote for a method when you don't have a model for that kind of question. You can also use your method slots to combine models in various combinations. This is often used for example in deep learning pipelines to demonstrate sensitivity to various parts of the pipeline, by selectively eliminating portions of the pipeline to show their impact on the overall score. So you could have Consensus, Financial Model, Election Model, Bet the Farm (0%/100%) Model, and do various stackings like Financial Then Consensus, Financial Then Best Forecaster Then Consensus, Financlal + Election, and so on. You get 40 combinations, more than enough for a good paper. Typically in deep learning papers you see 5 or so factors in a pipeline with some sensitivity analysis to individual factors. Each combination stands on it's own though and applies to all IFPs. What's your team name on the Leaderboard? I don't see anything like DataSwarm.
If you're finding the Zeitgeist on GFC2 by actually applying this thing: http://dataswarm.tech/
then that will be a great demo and wonderful advertising if you win. However, we're 14 questions done now. The clock is ticking. If you haven't submitted anything yet you're at a strong disadvantage and your system won't show well.
Modified on July 4, 2019, 5:19 a.m. PDT