Ian Pitchford
Sept. 18, 2018
11:37 a.m. PDT

IARPA Working on Machines That Predict the Future

Stacey Dixon, director of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), said today at an event organized by Defense One that some of the intelligence community’s more audacious research centers on using machines to predict the future–through more accurate forecasts of geopolitical events...
6 Replies

Dmitry Sarin
Sept. 19, 2018
1:13 a.m. PDT
In the year 2054 A.D. crime is virtually eliminated from Washington D.C. thanks to an elite law enforcing squad "Precrime". They use three gifted humans (called "Pre-Cogs") with special powers to see into the future and predict crimes beforehand.

Alfred Bender
Sept. 20, 2018
11:32 a.m. PDT
Ha. Well played.

Lars Ericson
Sept. 20, 2018
11:44 a.m. PDT
Someone also essayed the introduction of the term SuperCog as an Australian alternative to Tetlock's SuperForecaster™. However, in contemporary British, "Cog" has certain usages which render the term SuperCog problematic.

Ian Pitchford
Sept. 20, 2018
12:56 p.m. PDT
I’ve just taken part in two argumentation tournaments run by an IARPA project called SWARM at the University of Melbourne, but I don’t know whether there’s any connection with “SuperCogs”.

Lars Ericson
Sept. 20, 2018
2:49 p.m. PDT
This article:
but note this comment by bampbs on Jan 22nd 2016, 04:16:

The article has this line which is a retroactively poor advertisement: "And, for what it’s worth, Almanis’s users are much less sanguine about Donald Trump’s prospects than those of other prediction markets. "

Ian Pitchford
Sept. 21, 2018
12:06 a.m. PDT
Ah, I see. Thanks Lars.